Home » Economists are starting to worry about a serious Elon Musk-Caused recession

Economists are starting to worry about a serious Elon Musk-Caused recession

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Economists are starting to worry about a serious recession

Tariffs on America’s neighbours and assault on federal government will hit US economy

Donald Trump’s assault on the US federal government and the world’s interlinked manufacturing system have together reached an economic tipping point.

“It seems almost unavoidable that we are headed for a deep, deep recession,” said Jesse Rothstein, Berkeley professor and former chief economist at the US labour department.

Once the pace of job losses crosses a critical line, the multiplier effects can snowball suddenly.

Prof Rothstein said monthly non-farm payrolls – the barometer of US economic health watched closely by markets – could turn viciously negative by late spring, contracting at rates surpassed only during the worst months of Covid and the Lehman crisis in 2008.

“I think we’re going to see historically large drops. Losses of 400,000 a month are not implausible because people are getting nervous out there.

“It is not just the federal employees being fired: it’s all the other people worried they could be next, so they are cutting back too,” he told The Telegraph.

Torsten Slok, of Apollo Global, said layoffs could approach 1m after factoring in the likely chain reaction through contractors. “We are starting to worry about the downside risks to the economy and markets,” he said.

Mr Slok said it is a mystery as to why credit spreads and equities are still so well-behaved when the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index was now higher than at any time during the great recession.

Prof Rothstein said the damage would not show up immediately due to lag effects. The ugly months will be in April and May, but by then secondary shocks will have spread far and wide.

“There are all kinds of spillovers. Contracts for external contractors are being cut. Nobody knows how much imports are going to cost next month, or if we are even going to have accurate weather forecasts any more.

“How could you hire in these conditions? This is going to be very, very bad,” he said.

Markets are implicitly betting that Trump’s trade wars are just bluster, but he restated on Monday night that his 25pc tariffs against Mexico and Canada would go ahead next week, which would instantly snarl up the North American auto industry.

“It would be devastating,” said Ford’s Jim Farley.

Trump has a particular loathing for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its weather service, deemed the spearhead of “the climate change alarm industry” by Maga’s Project 2025.

Officials at NOAA have already been told that “climate change”, and “pollution” are henceforth banned terms. The office of management and budget plans to cut 38pc of their funding as part of its campaign to root out “woke agendas”. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick wants to abolish the agency entirely.

The surprise is that Elon Musk’s army of zoomer zealots are taking on everybody, even the US defence department. It will fire 5,400 civilian staff next week as the first stage of a 5pc to 8pc cull of the Pentagon staff to “cut the fat and grow the [warrior] muscle.”

It is hard to gauge the macroeconomic intensity of the fiscal cuts because judges are trying to jam on the brakes. We do not know what is mere theatre. I incline to the view that the culture war is deadly serious.

Orville Schell, director of the Asia Society, says Trump is uncannily like his fellow agent of insurrection, Mao Zedong, who also revelled in permanent havoc as a governing method.

Under Mao, a student shock force of 5,000 Red Guards was raised to crush resistance Credit: ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images

The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution launched in 1966 weaponised the fanaticism of indoctrinated youth, urging them to rise up and “bombard the headquarters” of the deep state.

Character-posters incited them to do their worst: “World in great disorder: excellent situation!” or “Without destruction, there can be no construction”, writes Schell on Project Syndicate.

Musk, meanwhile, does a passingly good imitation of Mao’s enforcer Kuai Dafu, who raised a student shock force of 5,000 Red Guards to crush resistance in the Communist hierarchy.

A young princeling called Xi Jinping was sent off to “eat bitterness” in the coal fields of Shaanxi.

What does China’s leader now make of this strange spectacle in Washington? Quiet satisfaction that America is tearing itself apart? Or alarm that the madness will spin out of control? A regime that sacks staff in charge of America’s nuclear weapons, without realising who they are, is a planetary danger. But I digress.

Trump hopes to overwhelm any contractionary shock by slashing taxes with his “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL” now heading for Congress.

But the risk for him is that a) his ideological stunts will send the economy into a tailspin months before any stimulus kicks in, and b) it will be thin gruel in any case.

You only have to read the details of Executive Order 14154 to see that there will be real economic consequences. Section 7, Terminating the Green New Deal, reads: “All agencies shall immediately pause the disbursement of funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act or the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.”

Judges have intervened but almost $300bn (£240bn) left from the Infrastructure Act remains in limbo. Freyr Battery has cancelled a $2.6bn plant in Georgia linked to the IRA. Kore Power has dropped its $1.2bn energy storage project in Arizona. Heliene has shelved a $200m solar-cell facility. Nel has halted its $200m gigafactory in Detroit. Prysmian will not be making undersea cables for offshore wind after all.

The US economy has been displaying late-cycle fatigue for some time, which is no doubt why Warren Buffett more than doubled his holding of cash and treasury bills to $334bn last year. We can only guess at his real reasons for battening down the hatches: perhaps he fears the delayed effects of past Fed tightening; or perhaps he dislikes anarchy.

Last week’s US data ought to be a warning.

Home sales fell 4.9pc in January. S&P Global’s survey of services tipped into contraction, and manufacturing held up only because of “front-running” ahead of trade wars. “February saw the US expansion falter to near-stall pace,” it said.

Is Wall Street showing the same pathological complacency seen in late 1999, or late 2007, or in early 2020, when it was already clear to anybody paying scientific attention that Covid meant havoc wherever it hit, progressing in staggered shocks over seven weeks from China, to Korea, to Iran, to Lombardy (blithely dismissed as an “Italian issue) before investors reacted? Markets then went mad.

The deeper question we have to ask is what is the equilibrium value of equities and financial assets in a world where the US declares trade war against the democracies, and aligns itself with Russia and North Korea in geopolitics. Perhaps DeepSeek AI can furnish the answer.

Meet the World’s 24 Superbillionaires

The ultrarich are growing in numbers, and changing wealth as we know it

In 1987, Forbes published its first billionaires list, featuring 140 individuals whose combined wealth totaled $295 billion. At the time, the richest person in the world was Japan’s Yoshiaki Tsutsumi, a real estate tycoon worth $20 billion.

Today, the world’s richest person, Elon Musk, is worth $419.4 billion, roughly 21 times as much as Tsutsumi at his peak and more than two million times as much as the median net worth of an American household, according to exclusive data from global wealth intelligence firm Altrata.

As the ranks of global billionaires have swelled dramatically in recent years, a new category of ultrarich has emerged—the superbillionaire. Musk is one of just 24 people worldwide who qualify for that distinction, which is defined as individuals worth $50 billion or more.

As of early February, those superbillionaires’ fortunes accounted for more than 16% of all billionaire wealth, a dramatic increase from 4% in 2014, according to Altrata. Their combined net worth totaled $3.3 trillion, equivalent to the nominal GDP of France. Of those 24 people, 16 qualified as centi-billionaires, meaning they have a net worth of at least $100 billion.

The rise of the superbillionaire has coincided with a significant leap in luxury markets across the world, including real estate, as these individuals cobble together massive portfolios of luxury homes around the globe.

The world’s superbillionaires

A ranking of those whose net worth is above $50 billion

Name	Estimated net worth	Key Business
1. Elon Musk	$419.4 billion	Tesla
2. Jeff Bezos	$263.8 billion	Amazon
3. Bernard Arnault	$238.9 billion	LVMH
4. Lawrence Ellison	$237 billion	Oracle
5. Mark Zuckerberg	$220.8 billion	Meta
6. Sergey Brin	$160.5 billion	Alphabet
7. Steven Ballmer	$157.4 billion	Microsoft
8. Warren Buffett	$154.2 billion	Berkshire Hathaway
9. James Walton	$117.5 billion	Walmart
10. Samuel Robson Walton	$114.4 billion	Walmart

Showing 1 to 10 of 24 entries

Altrata, as of Feb. 4, 2025

Experts say the data shows how the ranks of the ultrarich have begun to pull away from the merely wealthy, and how a subset has been propelled to new heights.

“Billionaires have always obviously controlled significant amounts of wealth, but now you’re talking about differences in the billionaire population themselves,” said Maya Imberg, head of thought leadership and analytics at Altrata, who has been researching the superbillionaire set. “It’s quite staggering just how much the net worths of some of these people have grown.”

In major luxury real-estate markets like New York, Miami, Palm Beach, Los Angeles and Aspen, new supertall towers and spec mansions have popped up geared specifically to the billionaire set and there has been an explosion of nine-figure home sales across the country.

Clockwise from top left, Bloomberg’s NYC Upper East Side townhouse, a Lake Tahoe property owned by Zuckerberg, Buffett’s home in Omaha, Neb., and one of Bezos’s waterfront homes in MiamiDaniella Zalcman for WSJ (Bloomberg); Jason Henry for WSJ (Zuckerberg); Deborah Acosta for WSJ (Bezos); Maria Julie Borer for WSJ (Buffett)

Each of the superbillionaires on Altrata’s list has direct personal residential real-estate holdings of at least $100 million, and often far more, according to the company. Imberg said that number is likely to be a significant underestimate in some cases because real estate can often be held in a partner’s name or owned by one of these billionaires’ companies or holding companies.

The world’s superbillionaire population is made up in large part by entrepreneurs who made their money in the tech sector, or whose industry was catapulted to new levels by technological advances. Of the top 10 richest individuals on the list, six fall into that category. Of the total 24 superbillionaires, only three were female. Only seven were headquartered outside of the United States.

The rise of the superbillionaire marks a transformation in the composition of the world’s ultrawealthy, experts said. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, the richest men were industrialists: John D. Rockefeller built Standard Oil into a monopoly, Andrew Carnegie dominated the steel industry, and Cornelius Vanderbilt amassed a fortune through railroads. Their wealth, while vast, was spread across industries that defined an era of physical infrastructure and manufacturing. Through Standard Oil, John D. Rockefeller became the world’s first confirmed billionaire in 1916.

During that period, a company’s value accounted for physical assets like property and machinery, more so than the types of intellectual property and promise of future scale and earnings that push up values today.

1. Elon Musk

Musk announced on social media in 2020 that he would be selling most of his physical possessions. He has since been tied to real-estate deals in Texas.

Kagan McLeod

2. Jeff Bezos

Since 2023, Bezos has spent $234 million assembling three properties on Miami’s Indian Creek Island, adding to his extensive property portfolio.

14. Bill Gates

Gates is one of the largest owners of U.S. farmland, with an estimated 242,000 acres.

22. Michael Dell

Dell was the first to spend 9 figures in Manhattan with his $100.47 million purchase of a penthouse on Billionaires’ Row in 2014.

4. Larry Ellison

Ellison set a price record for Florida in 2022 when he purchased a Manalapan estate for $173 million.

5. Mark Zuckerberg

Zuckerberg spent $59 million in 2018 cobbling together two private estates to make his own compound on Lake Tahoe.

6. Sergey Brin

Brin quietly purchased a $35 million a home in Malibu in 2023, shortly before his divorce.

7. Steve Ballmer

Ballmer is the owner of the Los Angeles Clippers and the Intuit Dome, the team’s new home arena.

13. Jensen Huang

Born in Taiwan, Huang has spent around $55 million on real estate since the late 1980s, including homes in California and Hawaii.

16. Larry Page

In 2021, obtained New Zealand residency, prompting debate over whether the superrich were being allowed to buy access to the South Pacific country.

Kagan McLeod

Today’s tech billionaires make up a significant portion of the superbillionaire pool. In addition to Musk, there’s Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg, and Steve Ballmer, the former chief executive of Microsoft.

Their wealth is linked almost entirely to the stock prices and therefore future cash flows of the companies they started. Bezos, Zuckerberg and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang have all recently seen their fortunes fluctuate by tens of billions in a single year, depending on investor sentiment. As a result, the scale of their wealth is unparalleled—but so is its volatility.

Unlike past generations, where fortunes were built over decades, today’s tech-driven economy has also enabled founders to amass enormous sums in a matter of just a few years. Before his arrest in 2022, Sam Bankman-Fried, the now-disgraced founder of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, was worth $26 billion before the age of 30, for instance.

“We have had huge technological change the last 40 years, and that has allowed some of these businesses to scale, and created a huge amount of shareholder value,” said Steven Kaplan, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business who studies finance and inequality. “Walmart is an example, Amazon is another. These are businesses that couldn’t have scaled to this level without technology.”

by the numbers

140: Billionaires on the Forbes World’s Billionaires List in 1987
3,323: Worldwide billionaires as of 2023
24: Superbillionaires, or people worth more than $50 billion
16%: Amount of billionaire wealth that superbillionaires’ fortunes account for
$100 million: Average worth of personal real estate each superbillionaire holds
16: Superbillionaires who qualify as centi-billionaires, meaning they have a net worth of at least $100 billion.

The current makeup of the superbillionaire population also shows a shift from the world’s richest people inheriting their wealth to a rise in self-made billionaires.

“The great American fortunes of today are new money, not old,” said a 2024 report by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, which noted the absence of names like Astor, Carnegie, Mellon, Rockefeller and Vanderbilt on lists like the Forbes 400.

“Of the approximately 97 still-living billionaires on the 2005 Forbes 400 list who inherited fortunes, less than half are still on the list today…. The minority of heirs and heiresses who remain on the list today were three times more likely to have fallen in the Forbes rankings than to have risen,” the report said.

Those shifts can be traced to the 1980s and 1990s. That’s due to vast advancements in technology during that period and, with that, a rise in the globalized nature of business.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University, said he attributes some of the rise of the super wealthy to the inability of antitrust laws to contend with monopoly power in the tech sector.

24. Prajogo Pangestu

The son of a rubber trader, Pangestu is the richest person in Indonesia.

18. Charles Koch

Charles maintains his primary home in Wichita, where he owns a large estate with a tennis court on the same compound where he grew up.

19. Julia Koch

Julia, the widow of billionaire industrialist David Koch, recently sold her duplex at the exclusive Manhattan co-op 740 Park Avenue for $45 million.

17. Mukesh Ambani

The high-rise Ambani family home, which rises high above the sprawling slums of Mumbai, is said to be one of the world’s most expensive and has a private cinema, a helicopter pad, a health club and multiple swimming pools.

21. Gautam Adani

Last year, Adani was charged by the Justice Department with orchestrating a massive bribery scheme related to solar energy supply contracts.

Kagan McLeod

“We have antitrust laws that were well adapted to Standard Oil but that don’t work well in the tech sphere,“ he said. “Monopoly power has given rise to the potential of enormous amounts of wealth.“

He also pointed to how today’s superbillionaires have become masters at tax avoidance and adept at taking advantage of weaknesses in corporate governance laws to extract “obscene amounts of money” in salary and bonuses. One example, he said, is the $50 billion compensation package from Tesla that Elon Musk has been in court fighting for over the past year.

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What are the implications of a rise in the number of super wealthy individuals? Join the conversation below.

“These guys have, both at the corporate level and at the individual level, been even better at avoiding taxes than in making good products,” Stiglitz said. “The level of taxes they pay as a share of their profits should be an embarrassment to them.” The 24 superbillionares declined to comment or didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Estimations of billionaire net worth are by nature, an inexact science. While it’s simple to calculate the value of publicly traded corporate stock, it’s much trickier to reach an estimate of value for a privately held company. Imberg said Altrata’s findings can vary from rankings in Forbes and the Bloomberg Billionaires’ Index because of factors like methodology and the daily fluctuations of stock prices.

3. Bernard Arnault

Arnault’s holdings include a partial stake in Château Cheval Blanc, a storied Bordeaux wine estate.

11. Amancio Ortega

Born in Spain, Ortega created the Zara empire.

20. Francoise Bettencourt Meyers

Meyers, the L’Oréal heiress, has owned a mansion in Neuilly-sur-Seine, a wealthy suburb of Paris.

12. Alice Walton

Alice’s property portfolio includes a $25 million duplex condo at New York’s 515 Park Avenue.

9. James Walton

James still lives in Bentonville, Ark., near where Walmart was founded.

10. Samuel Robson Walton

Samuel is the principal owner of the Denver Broncos, which he bought in 2022 for $4.65 billion.

Kagan McLeod

The explosion of billionaire net worth comes at a time of growing economic disparity in the U.S. In 2024, the top 1% of American households held $49.2 trillion in wealth, or about 30% of the country’s total wealth, according to federal data. In the late 1980s the top 1% held 23%.

The rise of the superbillionaire raises fundamental questions about the future of wealth distribution and economic power in the U.S. and globally. Economists and politicians remain split over the importance of allowing billionaire wealth to remain uncapped as a means to encourage innovation, or whether society can function equitably when so much capital is concentrated in the hands of so few.

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Inarguably, the concentration of wealth among a small number of tech entrepreneurs gives these individuals unprecedented influence over policy, media, and society. Musk controls SpaceX, Tesla, and X, influencing everything from space exploration to online discourse, as well as more recently having the ear of President Trump. Bezos owns the Washington Post. Zuckerberg heads Instagram, Facebook and Threads, platforms used by billions. These superbillionaires operate in a largely deregulated digital landscape where oversight is limited.

Kaplan, a self-described optimist, said he sees the same advances in tech and globalization that fueled the rise of the superbillionaire as being a net positive for society, though in the U.S. they have hurt the manufacturing sectors that used to be an economic driver for the middle class.

Luigi Zingales, an economics professor and host of the podcast “Capitalisn’t,” said he sees the rise of the superbillionaire class as a symptom of the failure of capitalism in the U.S.

“A good capitalist system is a system that doesn’t reward exactly anybody too much, because it remains very competitive, and every new innovation is quickly copied,” he said.

Zingales blamed the U.S. legal system for allowing tech companies to protect their trade secrets and innovations to the point where competition is impossible. “I’m the first one to say we need incentives for people to innovate. However, that somebody is reaping such large rewards suggests that the incentives are too much that we could have gotten the same outcome with much less,” he said.

15. Michael Bloomberg

Bloomberg’s portfolio includes a Beaux-Arts limestone house on New York’s Upper East Side.

8. Warren Buffett

Buffett paid $31,500 in 1958 to buy the Omaha, Neb., house where he still lives.

23. Zhong Shanshan

Chinese entrepreneur Zhong is the founder of bottled-drinks giant Nongfu Spring. Previously, he had a storied career, including forays into journalism and mushroom farming.

Kagan McLeod

Stiglitz also cautioned that wealth inequality can eventually translate to political inequality, which in turn compounds wealth inequality. “These guys live in a totally different world from ordinary Americans. So they don’t have to deal with public schools, public hospitals and they don’t rely on health insurance in the way that ordinary Americans do,” he said. “That kind of deep divide is polarizing and I think it undermines the kind of solidarity that is important for the functioning of a society.”

Regardless, the growth of the superbillionaire segment shows no signs of slowing.

Imberg said it’s plausible that we could see the world’s first trillionaire in the next few decades.

“One would probably have said no in the past, but anything’s possible these days,” she said.

Write to Katherine Clarke at Katherine.Clarke@wsj.com

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The world’s superbillionaires

A ranking of those whose net worth is above $50 billion

1. Elon Musk

2. Jeff Bezos

14. Bill Gates

22. Michael Dell

4. Larry Ellison

5. Mark Zuckerberg

6. Sergey Brin

7. Steve Ballmer

13. Jensen Huang

16. Larry Page

by the numbers

24. Prajogo Pangestu

18. Charles Koch

19. Julia Koch

17. Mukesh Ambani

21. Gautam Adani

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

3. Bernard Arnault

11. Amancio Ortega

20. Francoise Bettencourt Meyers

12. Alice Walton

9. James Walton

10. Samuel Robson Walton

15. Michael Bloomberg

8. Warren Buffett

23. Zhong Shanshan

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